Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement didn’t arrive with the fanfare of anticipation of her Autumn Budget.
Delivered on 3 March 2026, it was more of a temperature check than a grand unveiling. This update was all about forecasts and fine-tuning. It’s important to note that the tension in the Middle East was not reflected. This will inevitably affect future inflation figures and energy prices.
How’s the economy doing?
- Economic growth is predicted at 1.1% this year, picking up slightly to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, before settling at 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.
- Inflation is expected to return to the Government’s 2% target by the end of this year.
- Unemployment is forecast to rise to 5.3% in 2026. This is higher than the 4.9% predicted last autumn however it should gradually fall to 4.1% by 2030.
- Real Household Disposable Income per person is expected to grow by a modest 0.1% in 2025–26, then average around 0.5% per year until 2029.
In summary, progress is slow and steady.
What didn’t happen
- No changes to business rates or student loads despite anticipated relief.
- No new tax rises announced.
- No changes to the rollout of Making Tax Digital for Income Tax. Sole traders and landlords – are you ready? If your qualifying income is over £50,000, this affects you from April 2026. Next month!
Overall tax take is still forecast to climb to a historic high of nearly 43% of GDP by 2030–31, up from around 39% in 2024–25. So while there were no new tax hikes, the tax burden overall is still rising.
Other key updates
- The two-child benefit cap will be scrapped from April 2026.
- Welfare benefits will increase in line with inflation.
- Recent increases to National Insurance and the National Living Wage, along with the new Employment Rights Act, are already slowing recruitment and business.
The bigger picture
The Chancellor stuck to her promise of just one major fiscal event a year, aiming to provide stability rather than constant tax tinkering. For most people and businesses, there’s nothing dramatically new to react to right now. You can view the full Spring Statement report online.)
This points to bigger, more decisive announcements in the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2026.
Are you:
- An employer navigating National Insurance increases, rising wage costs, and new employment rules?
- A sole trader or landlord preparing for Making Tax Digital?
- Trying to plan ahead to minimise your tax liability?
The friendly experts at re:accounts Chartered Accountants in Stevenage are here to help. No jargon or drama… we’ll offer advice tailored to your situation.
If you’d like an initial, no-pressure chat, get in touch. Let’s make sure you’re prepared — whatever autumn brings.
